The Monte Carlo technique (pdf: 223k - 54 pages) is the most accurate method of calculating radiation levels arising from nuclear sources. Monte Carlo methods make extensive use of random numbers to control the decision making when a physical event has a number of possible results. When given a comprehensive set of nuclear data and infinite computer resources the method will reproduce, in a computer model, an exact simulation of that problem.
This stochastic method is whimsically named the Monte Carlo technique because it involves many elements of gaming and dice rolling in it's application. The method is extremely close to the true, physical nature of the problem being solved.